Evaluating annual severe coral bleaching risk for marine protected areas across Indonesia

Coral reefs face an uncertain future under global climate change, with thermal-induced bleaching increasing in frequency such that corals will soon experience annual severe (ASB). Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are therefore becoming increasingly important as a conservation tool. Here we evaluate (i) Indonesia’s coral reefs’ spatial variation ASB, (ii) whether projected to have later onset of ASB (i.e. possible refugia) protected within MPAs, and (iii) the risk profiles for related MPAs receiving priority investments. Our results highlight considerable variability across being at ASB. The before 2028 is greater by versus those outside MPA boundaries. 2025 non-priority MPAs. Overall, our show only ∼45% reef areas currently located likely act thermal refugia (ASB > 2044). This unsurprising given network Indonesia has been established over many decades, most designated suitable projections were available inform placement. scope further incorporate potential into new designations. study also provides strategic information, which can support development long-term strategy effectively manage, mitigate, adapt impacts change on reefs.